B3. Strategic Siting Diagnostic

Aims (Strategic lens: Quads → Zands)

Strategic lens treats the location selection as a two-step filter: first at Quad scale (26 continental blocks), then at Zand scale inside the best Quads (6°×15° cells). This keeps the Eastern/Western themes as balance checks (not dueling scorecards) and baked in the two-capital game.

Anchor a millennium-grade sphere of influence that remains strong through Years 0–250 and sets up years 250–1,000+.

Control a diversified resource basket plus the lowest-energy corridors to it.

Be hard to bypass (regional centrality) and hard to copy (denial value).

Keep practical EDL, dust, and regulatory friction low for early phases.

Quad-level screen (26 continental blocks)

Must-haves (hard gates)

Resource diversity across the Quad: ≥ 4 independent classes in ≥ 2 different Zands (e.g., shallow ice indicators, aggregates, sulfate/chloride binders, oxide-rich regolith/ores, clean bedrock hardstands).

Dual continental corridors: ≥ 2 outbound alignments that can sustain ≤1–1.5% ruling grades across Zand boundaries with viable bypass arcs every ~30–50 km.

Padport constellation feasibility: 2 padport zones in opposed quadrants that keep plume/dust off likely capital corridors.

EDL altitude margin: at least one 50×50 km hazard-light approach box at ≤ 0 km MOLA within the Quad or immediately adjacent.

Planetary-protection posture: candidate capital Zands and their near (0–50 km) environs outside “Special Regions.”

Strong preferences (weighted criteria)

(Composite score out of 100; tags show main bias: E=Eastern, W=Western. Sites must also meet the balance floors: E≥60, W≥60 at Strategic.)

Resource diversity & depth (×15, E/W): number of classes × quality × recoverability.

Continental centrality / can’t-bypass geometry (×12, E): are you on the natural long, low-grade “spine”?

EDL & altitude margin (×8, W): multiple safe boxes, not just one.

Macro dust/wind regime stability (×8, W): historically calmer sectors, manageable storm paths.

Padport constellation quality (×10, E/W): opposed quadrants, seasonal flexibility.

Planetary-protection friction (×8, W): clean buffers to sensitive sites.

Expansion adjacency (×10, E): ≥2 neighbor Zands also viable, enabling a future multi-Zand region.

Competitive moat / denial potential (×12, E): if we take this Quad’s best Zand, how much worse is the rival’s best reply?

ISRU export option value (×7, E/W): propellant/mass-driver feasibility, trunk grades to orbit-facing padports.

Science/culture vector (×10, E): long-run narrative/scientific capital (without PP traps).

Avoid (red flags → fail or heavy penalty)

Monocorridor dependence (one viable route out).

Single-basket resources (ice + binders + aggregate all co-located in one narrow corner).

Special Regions gatekeeping your trunks/padports.

An obvious parity Zand in the same Quad that a rival could grab to mirror your advantages.

Competitive add-ons at Quad stage (two-capital game)

For each top Quad, compute against likely rival picks:

Denial Value (DV): how much the rival’s best alternative score drops when we take our top Zand in this Quad.

Centrality Advantage (CA): delta in network centrality (betweenness) on trunkable corridors.

Resource Portfolio Gap (RPG): entropy/quality gap of resource baskets.

Access Overlap Ratio (AOR): fraction of top resources both sites can reach on ≤1.5% grades (lower is better for us).

Expansion Headroom Gap (EHG): difference in count/quality of future town-class Sector clusters reachable.

Rival-Aware Advantage (RAA) = Our Strategic composite − Rival’s composite at their best reply, with DV/CA/RPG/AOR/EHG folded as weighted deltas.

Approach specifics mechanics (Strategic tier)

Gate → Weight → Decide.

Gate failures = out.

Survivors get a Composite (0–100) plus E/W balance checks (Strategic floors: Composite ≥70, E ≥60, W ≥60).

Hard fail: Monocorridor dependence (only one viable outbound), Special Regions blocking both main trunks/padports, or an obvious parity Zand in the same Quad that mirrors >90% of your score.

Penalties: After penalties, re-check floors. If any floor drops below threshold → Reject.

Single-basket clustering (≥3 key resources co-located in one narrow corner): −10

Seasonal winds commonly driving padport plume across primary trunks: −8

Frequent regional dust storm tracks aligned with both trunks: −6

Two-capital game: For each top Zand we compute RAA vs. the rival’s best reply; we only pick from candidates with RAA ≥ 5–10 points (tuneable) so we don’t win on paper but lose after they respond.

What this produces (practical outputs)

Quad shortlist (5–8 items): gates pass/fail, weighted scores, E/W balances, RAA vs likely rival replies.

Zand finalists (6–10 items total across the best Quads): same treatment + adjacency bundles that form a coherent capital region.

Strategic Playbooks for the top 2–3 Zands: implied playstyle (Anchor Capital / Resource Port / Distributed Frontier), early flags to plant (corridor ROWs, dual padport declarations, standards), and rival counter-site notes.

Data & proxies we’ll use (so it’s testable)

Topography/grades: MOLA-based slope & long-profile analysis for ruling-grade corridors.

Ice likelihood: mid-lat shallow-ice indicators (polygonal/scalloped terrains; radar/thermal proxies).

Dust/wind: historical bedform orientations, thermal inertia mosaics for substrate hardness, known storm tracks.

PP overlays: Special Regions & heritage science footprints.

EDL: elevation + hazard density tiles to place 50×50 km approach boxes.

Network centrality: corridor graphs over Sectors/Zands to compute CA.